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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 481 FONT13 KNHC 262056 PWSAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 2100 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 6(44) 1(45) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 22(57) X(57) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 1(31) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 20(75) X(75) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 17(41) X(41) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 15(40) X(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 12(15) 57(72) 1(73) X(73) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) X(39) X(39) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 20 36(56) 31(87) 12(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTEGO BAY 50 1 3( 4) 25(29) 44(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 7(54) X(54) X(54) KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 1 2( 3) 15(18) 35(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN Source: Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
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