000
WTNT43 KNHC 301454
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
 
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance recently investigated Melissa and
found winds in the southeast quadrant that supported a 90-kt
intensity.  The central pressure is about 965 mb, based on dropsonde
data.  The wind radii have changed only slightly during the past 12
hours.  The satellite presentation remains fairly impressive, with
an eye feature emerging on GOES 19 imagery over the past couple of
hours.  Some slight additional strengthening is possible for another
few hours while Melissa remains over marginally warm sea-surface
temperatures, but the water temperatures will rapidly decrease
tonight while wind shear rapidly increases.  As a result, Melissa is
expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes
Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone
over the North Atlantic by Friday night.  The latest NHC intensity
forecast remains towards the higher end of the guidance envelope,
and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical
phase.
 
Melissa is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving 30
degrees at 21 kt. A faster motion is expected during the next
couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic.  The guidance is in excellent agreement
through the next 48 hours, until after the system makes its closest
approach to Atlantic Canada.  A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for Bermuda, and Melissa is likely to pass to the west and
northwest of the island tonight.  Melissa should then pass near the
southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone
on Friday night before turning more towards the east-northeast, and
moving across the North Atlantic this weekend.  No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast through 48 hours, but
the track was shifted a bit to the northeast of the previous
forecast from day 3 onward.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.
 
2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 27.8N  71.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 31.6N  68.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 37.5N  62.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 43.8N  55.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1200Z 49.5N  48.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  02/0000Z 53.3N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1200Z 54.7N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1200Z 56.6N  26.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen