Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the U.S. today
through tonight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Largely zonal mid-level flow currently extends across the CONUS,
although upper troughing is just off the West Coast. Complex
evolution is anticipated with this upper troughing throughout the
period as a more progressive shortwave trough moves within its
northern periphery and a shortwave within its southern periphery dig
south/southeast. This will result in a bifurcation of the upper
troughing, with the southern shortwave evolving into a cyclone off
the central/southern CA coast. This evolution will result in
persistent large-scale forcing for ascent, and associated mid-level
cooling, along the northern/central CA Coast. Resulting
thermodynamic profiles could support isolated lightning flashes with
any deeper, more persistent convection. This appears most likely
from this morning through the early afternoon. 

Additionally, a lead shortwave trough is ejecting across the Four
Corners and expected to move through the central Plains and Mid MS
Valley. Modest buoyancy is anticipated ahead of this trough across
UT, southwest WY, and northwest CO, which could result in a few
lightning flashes within any deeper convection associated with this
wave. Low-level southwesterly flow will increase ahead of this wave
as it moves across central Plains and into the Mid MS Valley.
Associated warm-air advection coupled with cooling mid-level
temperatures could result in enough elevated buoyancy for weak
convection capable of producing lightning from southern MN across
northern IA/southwest WI into northern IL. However, probabilities
for this still appear below the minimum 10 percent threshold for a
categorical thunder area.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/05/2026