Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

...Southern and Central Plains...
Increasing westerly flow aloft and associated strengthening surface
lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains will  support
dry and breezy conditions across portions of eastern CO, eastern NM
and OK/TX Panhandles through this afternoon. Sustained
south/southwest winds approaching 20 mph coinciding with minimum RH
between 15 and 20 percent will promote elevated fire weather
conditions amid a receptive fuelscape. Boundary layer decoupling
could be delayed across the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS
supporting a lingering fire weather threat into the late evening
hours, where surface wind reductions will be gradual under an
accelerating low-level jet. In addition, poor RH recoveries of 30%
or less under increasing cloud cover are possible overnight leading
into Day 2/Tuesday. A slight eastward extension of Elevated
highlights was made across the TX Panhandle and far northwestern OK
based on latest model guidance and surface observations.

..Williams.. 02/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will overspread the Mississippi Valley as a
pronounced mid-level trough impinges on the Rockies today. As this
occurs, strong surface lee troughing will encourage widespread 15+
mph sustained southerly winds over the central and southern High
Plains for much of the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been
maintained over areas devoid of recent precipitation (hence dry
fuels), and where RH will dip below 20 percent for several hours.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...