Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the
Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly from the Pacific
Northwest in the central Plains/Mid MO Valley on Wednesday, moving
within the broadly cyclonic upper flow expected to be in place
across the CONUS. Deepening surface lee troughing is anticipated
ahead of this wave, with cyclogenesis eventually yielding a low that
progresses across the TX Panhandle during the evening and along the
Red River overnight. 

A moistening warm sector will precede this surface low and its
parent shortwave, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching across much of
eastern OK and southern/central AR by early Thursday morning. 60s
dewpoints will likely remain confined farther south along the TX
Coast, with warm temperatures aloft precluding deep convection
throughout the warm sector. However, strengthening low to mid-level
flow is anticipated throughout the warm sector, resulting in
moderate to strong warm-air advection across the frontal zone
extending northeastward from the Red River surface low. Showers and
a few thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South and TN Valley
as limited but sufficient buoyancy develops amid the moistening low
to mid-levels and cool temperatures aloft. A few thunderstorms are
also possible immediately ahead of a weak triple point low farther
west in the vicinity of the confluence of the MS and OH rivers.

..Mosier.. 02/23/2026