Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S. and from the Intermountain West into the
central Rockies.

...Synopsis...
A broad fetch of isentropic ascent will likely become established
across the central U.S. Monday through Monday night as
south/southwesterly 925-850 mb winds gradually increase in response
to the approach of an upper wave from the West. While buoyancy
profiles will likely be fairly modest due to poor mid-level lapse
rates, adequate low-level moistening should take place to support
isolated elevated thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward
into the mid-MS River Valley. Although surface-based buoyancy should
be maximized across western TX in proximity to a meandering dry
line/lee trough and south of a weak front, very warm temperatures at
850 mb/strong capping will subdue convective potential. Across the
Intermountain West, cold temperatures aloft associated with the
upper wave should support isolated lightning flashes.

..Moore.. 02/28/2026