Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR TESTING THE CORRECTION PROCESS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk continues across parts of the southern/central
Plains into Missouri and western Illinois. Moisture continues
northward, observed in visible satellite and 60 F dew points 
increasing from the south into southern Kansas. Thunderstorm
development is still expected to be delayed into the evening as
modest capping remains in place. Some conditional risk for large
hail (some up to 1.5-2" in diameter) will be possible, mainly across
northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. In this region, a favorable
overlap of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will overlap with steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear near the frontal
boundary.

..Thornton.. 03/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight.  A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks.  A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening. 
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley.  A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging.  The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon.  Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours.  As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor).  Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms. 
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.