Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas into Kansas.  Large hail appears
to be the main threat, though a couple of tornadoes and isolated
severe gusts will also be possible.

...Southern/central Plains Thursday afternoon/night...
Amplification of a midlevel trough is expected near the Four Corners
Thursday into Thursday night, as a downstream lee cyclone deepens
across eastern CO.  The deepening cyclone will draw moisture
northward from TX across the southern/central Plains through early
Friday in the developing warm sector.  The lee trough/dryline will
be located near or just west of the KS/CO and TX/NM borders by late
afternoon as the cyclone deepens in place.  Surface heating in cloud
breaks could allow sufficient vertical mixing to weaken convective
inhibition and allow isolated thunderstorm development along and
just east of the dryline by late afternoon across the TX
Panhandle/South Plains into southwest KS.  The storm environment
will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing large hail
near or just in excess of 2 inches in diameter.  The tornado threat
will be a little greater by early evening as low-level shear
increases and near 60 F dewpoints surge northward from OK into KS,
though the tornado threat will depend on a supercell or two
persisting into late evening.

Otherwise, elevated convection will spread northeastward Thursday
night as the low-level jet and associated warm/moist advection
increase.  Steep midlevel lapse rates will support the potential for
large hail with the overnight convection as far north as NE/IA.

..Thompson.. 03/03/2026