Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on
Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

...Discussion...
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong wind
fields aloft. A surface low move from Lower MI into southern Quebec,
with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern
PA, VA, and NC by around 21Z. Ahead of this trough/front, southerly
winds will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast PA.

Storms will likely be ongoing along the length of the cold front,
roughly from OH to the FL Panhandle Monday morning. Given the
uncapped air mass over the Carolinas, a few storms, possibly
supercells, may develop relatively early in the day as well, with
tornado potential. The greatest threat however will be during the
afternoon as cold front nears, and pressure falls are maximized
along with daytime heating. A few supercells ahead of the line will
be possible, along with embedded circulations and/significant
damaging winds within the squall line.

There are model differences regarding the speed/position of the cold
front, as well as the degree of instability. Regardless, damaging
winds over a large area appear likely, along with at least a few
tornadoes. Depending on the degree of destabilization, a strong
tornado or two may occur especially over parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia during the late afternoon. Many models forecast 300-500
m2/s2 SRH, along with pockets of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which is
clearly favorable for tornadic supercells.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026