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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
SPC MD 649MD 0649 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 184... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI 
Mesoscale Discussion 0649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026
Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Arkansas...Western Tennessee...Far Northwest Mississippi
Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...
Valid 060159Z - 060400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe storm development will be possible across parts of north-central and northeast Arkansas over the next few hours. A tornado threat, along with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. New watch issuance could be needed to the east of WW 184, if cells can trend upward in intensity.
DISCUSSION...At the surface, a cold front is located in north-central Arkansas, along which several cells are ongoing. So far, these storms have remained mostly on the cool side of the boundary and are elevated. However, short-term model forecasts suggest that additional storms will develop over the next few hours ahead of the front from central Arkansas northeastward into western Tennessee. If this happens, then surface-based storms will become likely. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km shear near 75 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 550 m2/s2. This environment will be favorable for severe storms if if cell coverage markedly increases late this evening as the HRRR suggests. Under this scenario, new weather watch issuance would probably be needed to the east of the current watch.
..Broyles/Hart.. 05/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35249346 35529332 35739287 35969152 36129024 36018954 35848931 35578921 35278926 34948963 34789022 34519205 34459287 34649322 34939341 35249346
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0649.html
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