Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist
through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada
remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and
repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast
to the Mid-Atlantic. Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily
be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the duration of the
forecast period, given a widespread transition to green up and
expected appreciable precipitation. An upper ridge will prevail
across the western U.S., resulting in above normal temperatures and
dry conditions to continue for much of the Intermountain West
through the forecast period. 

On Day 3/Thursday, a cold front will extend from the Carolinas to
Gulf Coast with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the front. A
deep, dry airmass and 10-15 mph westerly winds atop a drying FL
Peninsula fuelscape will enhance fire weather concerns. 40% Critical
probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. On
Day 4/Friday, a dry and breezy post frontal environment will
overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. West-northwesterly
winds of 5-15 mph and marginal RH precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities at this time. However, an exceptionally dry
fuelscape (90-95th percentile ERCs) susceptible to increased fire
spread in terrain-favored areas may promote localized fire weather
concerns. 

Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal
temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western
CONUS. Farther east, periodic breeziness and marginally dry
conditions are expected to continue over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the weekend. Localized fire weather concerns
may emerge where stronger winds overlap dry fuels.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...