Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN TEXAS NEAR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. Isolated
large hail is possible over a small part of Texas near the middle
Rio Grand Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on
Thursday, with leading speed max aloft sweeping across the TN Valley
and toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push
south across the Carolinas, with western portions of the front
stalling near the central Gulf Coast.

To the west, strong southwest winds aloft will persist from northern
Mexico into TX as an upper low drifts east, with high pressure at
the surface but elevated instability in place.

...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the cold front
Thursday morning, from southeast LA across GA and into the
Carolinas. A few storms could still be severe from southeast AL into
central GA as the previous nights activity persists. Strong wind
gusts or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out at that time as
SRH will be maximized above 200 m2/s2. Given the veering low-level
winds with time and associated midlevel drying/subsidence later in
the day, the severe risk may diminish by afternoon.

...Middle Rio Grande Vicinity...
While lift will be weak, it appears enough lift via warm advection
above the stable surface layer may support isolated storm
development early on Thursday. Winds around 850 mb will be out of
the southeast at 10-15 kt, with indications by some models of hail
potential. Uncertainty exists regarding degree of elevated
instability, but effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer
conditionally favor hail.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2026