Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the northeastern
CONUS through late next week as an upper low remains anchored over
the southern Ontario/Quebec regions. An upper-level ridge will
flatten over the Pacific Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday, eventually
breaking down and shifting eastward over the central CONUS as a
trough moves onshore the West Coast by Day 6-7/Thursday-Friday.
Consequently, some isolated dry thunderstorm potential alongside dry
and breezy conditions with above normal temperatures (and resultant
dry fuels) will support expansive fire concerns through the
remainder of the forecast period. While timing differences in
various NWP guidance currently precludes the introduction of
critical probabilities past Day 6/Friday, highlights may be needed
in future outlook cycles as details become better resolved. 

...Days 3-6/Tuesday-Friday - Parts of the Intermountain West...
Well above normal surface temperatures will occur under the upper
ridge through early next week, with record high temperatures
forecast to be met or exceeded in portions of the Pacific Northwest
and along the West Coast. This anomalous, but short-lived, heat wave
is expected to further dry dead fuels over much of the western CONUS
- significantly so over the Pacific Northwest. 

As the ridge dampens, robust northwesterly flow aloft should foster
breezy surface winds amid pre-existing warm and dry conditions.
Thus, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained across eastern
Washington and southeastern Oregon on Day 3/Tuesday where fire
weather conditions will overlap a vast region of cured grasses. As
robust northwesterly flow aloft overspreads the central Rockies and
a dry cold front traverses the central Plains, heightened fire
concerns reemerge as ERCs approach the 90-95th percentile. 40%
Critical probabilities have been maintained across the region on Day
3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday, though spatial extent may be adjusted
in future outlooks with updated guidance and fuel progression. A
residual dry airmass will persist across the Southwest and Great
Basin on Day 5/Thursday, however weaker flow precludes the
introduction of probabilities at this time.

As the upper ridge breaks down, upper-level troughing will move
onshore the West Coast by the end of this week. Above normal
temperatures are forecast across the Pacific Northwest on Day
6/Friday ahead of a southward progressing cold front, which should
bring increasing mid-level moisture and chances for thunderstorms.
Given preceding days of warm and dry conditions and coincident
curing fuels, the isolated nature of thunderstorm potential could
pose a threat for lightning ignitions across a very dry environment.
As a result, 10% probabilities for Dry Thunderstorms have been
introduced across the southern Cascades and northern Great Basin.
These conditions may persist overnight and into Day 7/Saturday,
however there is too much uncertainty in coverage and the transition
to wetting rainfall, precluding additional probabilities for now.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...