Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main
threat.

...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident
over OH/MI.  As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface
cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  Considerable clouds are present ahead of the
front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and
confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later
today.  However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and
dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to
severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado.  

...TN/MS/AL/GA...
The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern
MS.  This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV
noted over eastern AR.  A very moist and unstable air mass is in
place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into
the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon.
Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a
low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few
supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two.  Activity
will track into north GA this evening.  Refer to MD #1252 for
further details.

...Central High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the
High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE
values will develop by mid-afternoon.  Easterly/upslope flow will
contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and
southward along the DCVZ in CO.  These storms will track into the
CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes.

..Hart/Moore.. 06/22/2026