Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of hail in excess of two inches and
wind gusts greater than 75 mph are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly hail are
possible across the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi
Valley. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds also appear
possible from the Delmarva into eastern North Carolina.

...Synopsis...

Within the base of an upper low centered over Saskatchewan and
Manitoba, a vorticity lobe will progress through the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. That disturbance will be attended by a
belt of 40-50 kt flow in the mid levels, which will overspread the
northern and central Plains. Elsewhere, an apparent MCV initially
over western parts of VA and NC at 12Z Tuesday will progress through
the Piedmont and Coastal Plain over the course of the day.

At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to slowly move
east along the southern Manitoba, northeast ND, northwest MN border
region with an associated cold front trailing southwest into the
central High Plains. Along the East Coast, an area of low pressure
is forecast to track through VA into the Tidewater region with a
trailing cold front moving through the Southeast.


...Central High Plains into the Central and Southern Plains...

The 12Z parameterized and convection-allowing models offer various
scenarios in regard to the location of ongoing storms Tuesday
morning, which in turn affects the evolution of diurnally enhanced
storm development by afternoon, and the subsequent track of a severe
MCS Tuesday night. Despite these differences, an EML will remain
intact across the High Plains, which coupled with a moist, upslope
regime in the low levels, will support a moderately unstable air
mass by afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storms appear
possible from the vicinity of the Cheyenne Ridge south along the CO
Front Range with 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear favoring
supercells capable of large to very large hail. Additional severe
storms appear possible during the afternoon across lower elevations
of the central and southern Plains, the details of which remain
highly uncertain.

As mentioned above, the models are in generally good agreement in
depicting the upscale growth of the afternoon storms into a
southeastward-moving MCS capable of damaging wind swaths and
significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. However, uncertainty in the
specific track of the MCS precludes the introduction of higher wind
probabilities and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk. 


...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Multiple clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms are expected to
be ongoing Tuesday morning from the eastern Dakotas into northern
NE, within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the disturbance
mentioned in the synopsis. Modest instability coupled with 40-50 kt
of effective bulk shear may support some transient supercell
structures capable of large hail.

Additional surface-based storms appear possible by afternoon in the
vicinity of the surface front over the Red River Valley. Some
uncertainty still exists in the degree of air mass destabilization
owing to the potential for lingering clouds in the wake of the
early-day storms. Where greater destabilization can occur, the
environment will support mainly a large hail threat. Should stronger
heating and resultant steep, low-level lapse rates develop in the
vicinity of the front, a brief tornado or two will be possible owing
to a local maximum in vertical vorticity. Confidence in that
scenario is currently too low to include a 2% probability in this
forecast.  


...Delmarva into eastern North Carolina...

A narrow corridor of severe-weather potential may materialize
Tuesday afternoon ahead of the surface low and surface front moving
through the area. A slight enhancement of mid-level flow (and
resultant vertical shear) will coincide with a moist and moderately
unstable air mass to support some organization with the primary
hazard being locally damaging wind gusts. Some tornado threat may
materialize ahead of the surface low, where backed near-surface
winds enhance low-level shear. A 2% tornado probability may need to
be included in subsequent Day 1 outlooks should the current model
signal persist.

..Mead.. 06/22/2026