SPC MD 1523
MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Areas affected...Much of northern/central Virginia into
north-central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061827Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
thunderstorm development this afternoon. The stronger storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. It is unclear if a watch
will be needed, especially in the near term.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data shows a gradual increase in
thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of western VA ,
with more isolated development farther east. Over the next few
hours, continued diurnal heating and orographic lift should promote
scattered thunderstorms. As these storms advance eastward into parts
of central VA and north-central NC, steepening low-level lapse rates
and increasing buoyancy will promote damaging wind gusts --
especially with any clusters of storms that evolve. Current thinking
is that the greater risk of damaging winds will develop later this
afternoon into the evening, as storms congeal into small clusters.
Therefore, the need for a watch is uncertain in the near term,
though convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36578011 37117958 37627924 38217893 38617844 38837801
            38847750 38567704 38247687 37587689 36607735 35727817
            35427881 35437971 35738020 36138031 36578011 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1523.html