Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of
northern New York and New England. Thunderstorms with scattered
severe winds and isolated hail will also be possible across portions
of Montana.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments required. Convection across southeast Quebec has
struggled to maintained intensity as it approaches the U.S. border
through mid-afternoon with abundant cirrus, smoke, and cloud debris
overspreading central to northern ME. Recent surface observations
show temperatures remaining in the mid/upper 70s, which is
supporting very limited MLCAPE per the 18 UTC CAR RAOB. This casts
considerable uncertainty on the degree of destabilization that will
occur through the early evening hours. Latest CAM guidance appears
to be capturing this trend and depicts low probabilities for intense
UH and/or strong wind swaths across northern ME. 30%/Enhanced
contours were trimmed southward to account for this decreased
confidence. 

Further southwest, warmer temperatures in the 80s are supporting a
more volatile atmosphere with MLCAPE values estimated to be around
2000 J/kg. Strong shear remains across the region per VWP
observations, and CAM guidance continues to depict some potential
for intense convection traversing northern NY, VT, NH and western ME
later this evening as the primary surface trough migrates east. Risk
probabilities have been shifted southwest to better align with the
better thermodynamic environment and convective signal. However, the
recent convective trends upstream and modulating influence of
wildfire smoke on boundary-layer mixing/CIN reduction casts
uncertainty on how widespread the severe threat may be. 

...Florida...
Regional reflectivity and velocity data shows a few stronger
thunderstorms developing across the FL Peninsula with occasional
downbursts. Further heating over the next few hours will continue to
support some potential for strong/severe downburst winds. See MCD
#1614 for additional information.

...Montana...
Deepening cumulus is noted within the higher terrain of southern MT
and western WY as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Guidance continues to show reasonably strong agreement in the
emergence of one or more clusters across the region through
mid-evening that will pose a risk of large hail and severe gusts.
With low-level lapse rates increasing to around 8 C/km and 30-40
knots of effective shear in place, there is some potential for
sporadic wind gusts upwards of 65-75 mph. This potential is
highlighted by recent CAM ensembles, and warranted introducing a CIG
level 1 area across parts of central MT where thermodynamic
conditions should be most favorable through early evening.

..Moore.. 07/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026/

...New England...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a belt of 80+ knot mid level winds
nosing from eastern Ontario into Quebec, with mid-level height falls
and large-scale forcing spreading into northern New England.  This
has been aiding in multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms over
Quebec this morning, but so far this activity has struggled to make
it into the US due to a more stable air mass.  This will change
through the day as a moist and moderately unstable air mass advects
eastward into parts of New England ahead of the primary convective
activity.  Widespread smoke from upstream fires will also somewhat
limit daytime heating today, although the extent of the cooling is
uncertain.  

Present indications are that several convective cells and clusters
will track southeastward across parts of eastern NY, VT/NH and
western ME later this afternoon and evening.  Forecast soundings in
this region show favorable CAPE/shear combinations for supercell
storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. 
Larger bowing clusters may also evolve, with a greater risk of
damaging winds.  This activity may persist after midnight with a
continued severe risk.

...MT...
A shortwave trough now over NV and its associated mid-level speed
max will rotate northward into parts of ID/MT this afternoon and
evening, aiding in the development of thunderstorms over the
mountains.  Storms are expected to spread northeastward into the
Plains during the evening, with a risk of severe wind gusts in the
strongest storms.

...FL...
Hot and humid conditions will lead to strong afternoon CAPE values
and scattered thunderstorms over the central FL peninsula.  Forecast
soundings show slightly enhanced westerly flow around 700mb across
this area, which may aid in occasionally damaging winds in the
stronger cores.