Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep-layer cyclone is expected to remain in place over parts of
Labrador and northern Quebec on Thursday. A vigorous mid/upper-level
shortwave is forecast to move through the base of the attendant
trough across parts of northern New England. To the west, a
mid/upper-level cyclone off of the Pacific Northwest coast is
forecast to move north-northeastward toward Vancouver Island.
Farther south, a persistent mid/upper-level trough will continue to
bring a threat of widespread convection and heavy rainfall across
parts of southwest TX and vicinity. Thunderstorm potential will
cover a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak
mid/upper-level flow should limit potential for organized convection
across most areas. 

...Northern New England...
A strong reinforcing front will accompany the mid/upper shortwave
moving across northern New England on Thursday. Guidance varies
considerably regarding the extent of heating and destabilization
along/ahead of this front. The more aggressive guidance (such as the
NAM NEST and RRFS) depicts MLCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg,
sufficient for organized convection given the strength of the
low-midlevel wind fields. Other guidance depicts very limited
destabilization and severe potential. Depending on trends regarding
destabilization and timing of the front, severe probabilities may
eventually be needed. 

...Mid-Atlantic...
While large-scale ascent will generally be weak, strong heating in
the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone may allow for isolated storm
development across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and vicinity on
Thursday. Low-level flow will be weak and deep-layer shear will be
modest at best, but localized strong/damaging gusts could occur, if
sustained storms develop within this hot and well-mixed regime. 

...Interior Northwest...
While the magnitude of diurnal destabilization across parts of the
interior Northwest remains uncertain, some potential for
strong-storm development could evolve as stronger mid/upper-level
flow associated with the offshore low overspreads the region. This
area will continue to be monitored regarding the need for severe
probabilities.

..Dean.. 07/14/2026