Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...Afternoon Update...
An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was introduced across the
Cascades and central-eastern OR/WA. As a shortwave trough impinges
upon the Pacific Northwest, strong south-southwesterly flow aloft
will blanket the region. Orographic ascent and daytime instability
amid residual mid-level moisture will support mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms on Day 2/Wednesday afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings depict 0.7-1.0" PWATs, 300-600 J/kg MUCAPE, and 7.5-8 C/km
700-500 mb lapse rates. While some thunderstorms will be capable of
locally heavier rainfall, greater precipitation efficiency will
likely be limited given strong LCL-EL winds of 20-30 kts and a dry
boundary layer favoring evaporation. A Fuels & Fire Behavior
Advisory was issued this morning (Day 1/Tuesday) across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, encompassing some of the IsoDryT risk area,
denoting worsening region-wide drought has contributed to a very dry
fuelscape and stressed vegetation. Lightning ignitions are possible
given the state of dry fuels, and gusty/erratic winds could further
exacerbate any new and ongoing wildfires.

The Elevated fire weather risk area was expanded to include more of
the Central Valley into the Transverse Ranges where
west-northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph (locally higher) and 15-20% RH
values will overlap drying fuels. 

The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/14/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026/

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. as a
surface trough lingers across the northern Plains, bringing another
day of fire weather concerns to parts of the northern High Plains
via dry and breezy conditions. Gusty onshore winds across the
California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley will promote a
fire weather threat Wednesday as fuels continue to dry.

...Central California Coastal Ranges and Central Valley...
Onshore flow aided by downslope drying and terrain accelerated winds
will support elevated fire weather conditions across the central CA
coastal ranges into the adjacent Central Valley. Fuels continue to
dry with ERC values reaching the 90-95th percentile range under very
warm temperatures. These winds generally from the west and northwest
at 10-15 mph (locally 20-25 mph in favored terrain gaps) combined
with RH of 15-20% in the coastal ranges to as low as 10% in the
Central valley, will support elevated fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon and early evening. 

...Northern High Plains...
Hot and dry conditions under a stagnant mid-level ridge over the
central U.S. are expected across portions of the northern Plains
Wednesday. At the surface, a trough over southeastern MT will
bolster low-level southeasterly flow (up to 15 mph sustained) over
portions of western SD, NE Panhandle and northern CO. These winds
coinciding with RH in the 15-20% range will yield elevated fire
weather conditions amid very dry fuels Wednesday afternoon. Elevated
highlights were extended into central WY given latest forecast
guidance with expected RH as low as 10 percent and steady easterly
winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...