Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and
over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms
may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota
and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.

...VA/Carolinas into the TN Valley...
An upper trough will lift out of the Northeast on Sunday, with a
trailing cold front extending from southern VA westward toward the
KY/TN border during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, low 70s F
dewpoints and heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
warmer air aloft. Modest west to northwest flow aloft will persist,
with 500 mb speeds around 20 kt near the VA/NC portion of the front.
Farther west into TN and AL, winds will be weaker but more northerly
at 10-15 kt.

Storms are likely to develop along the length of the front by early
afternoon, moving in a southeasterly direction. The most favorable
combination of mean wind speeds and deep-layer shear will be from VA
into NC, and corridors of damaging wind gusts may occur as various
clusters form along the front.

Farther west, the very moist and uncapped air mass should lead to
southward-moving storm clusters developing from TN into northern GA
and AL through the afternoon. At least isolated damaging gusts
appear likely.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge over the area will break down as a shortwave trough
moves across MT and into the northern Plains late. Deep-layer shear
will increase through the period with 40-50 kt. Storms should
develop near the surface trough coincident with peak heating from ND
into southeast MT, and forecast soundings show elongated hodographs
and steep lapse rates favorable for a few supercells producing large
hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk will continue
east/southeastward into SD and MN through the evening and overnight,
as storm coverage increases with a southwesterly low-level jet and
height falls. Damaging winds should be the main concern, though a
large hail threat may persist if cellular modes should persist.

..Jewell.. 07/18/2026