000
WTPA42 PHFO 141444
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026

Lala has remained relatively steady state overnight.  The storm 
continues to be asymmetric, with most of the deep convection and 
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side.  Earlier data from an 
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure 
has been generally unchanged around 997 mb and the maximum winds 
still near 50 kt.  The aircraft data and an OSCAT pass from around 
09Z indicate that the wind field has contracted, which could be a 
sign that circulation is becoming more compact and might lead to 
strengthening soon. 
 
Lala is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and this general motion 
is expected to persist during the next few days as a mid-level high 
pressure system remains anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands. This 
motion should take the core of Lala very near or over the Big Island 
on Saturday.  When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term 
deviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain 
interactions, as depicted in many of the models.  After Lala passes 
the Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the 
remainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday.  The 
NHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is 
based on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, 
which have been performing quite well for this storm.
 
Steady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the 
storm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions 
remain generally favorable.  Lala is still forecast to become a 
category 1 hurricane when it reaches the Big Island.  Land 
interaction and an increase in wind shear should result in Lala 
weakening back to a tropical storm as it moves south of the 
remainder of the island chain later in the weekend.  
Re-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear 
relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures.  The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory 
and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it 
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning 
remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning 
has been issued for Maui County. Tropical Storm Watches have been 
issued for Oahu and Kauai Counties. Winds are expected to be the 
strongest in areas of higher terrain.  
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to 
impact the Big Island today, spreading westward across the 
remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are
expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed
windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf
may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 16.7N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 17.2N 151.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.0N 153.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 18.7N 155.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 19.6N 158.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 20.2N 160.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 20.7N 163.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 21.2N 166.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 22.3N 170.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce