Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Good overnight humidity recoveries occurred where dry fuels remain
in the Northwest and portions of the southern Plains. A cold front
has stalled across northern Oklahoma, and will slowly push southward
this evening/overnight. The 12z sounding from OUN sampled a 1.74"
PWAT, nearing the 90th percentile climatology, alongside 1000+ J/kg
of MUCAPE. Forecast soundings depict shallow inverted-V profiles
with gradual moistening of the mid-levels through the afternoon amid
weak flow, suggesting greater precipitation efficiency is likely
with any afternoon thunderstorm near/north of the front; thus,
precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm risk. Despite many
consecutive days of hot, dry, and windy conditions, modest RH values
of 20% or greater are expected. However, ERCs will remain at the
95-98th percentiles, allowing a threat for lightning ignitions to
emerge on the periphery of accumulating rainfall. The rest of the
forecast remains on track, please see the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026/

...Synopsis...
The prominent mid-level ridge over the central and western US will
begin to weaken under the influence of multiple upper-level troughs
today and tonight. The primary upper trough will move eastward
across the northern portions of the ridge near the Canadian border.
This will force a stalled front over the Plains southward while
monsoon moisture is shunted eastward with a second weaker trough
approaching the West Coast.  While overall fire-weather concerns are
low, some lightning and dry/breezy conditions are possible over
parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin/Northern Rockies.

...Southern Plains...
The cold front is forecast to move south across parts of the TX
Panhandle and OK today supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Likely higher-based owing to very warm surface
temperatures south of the front, these storms may develop over ares
of very dry fuels. However, slow storm speeds and increasing
moisture along the front suggest limited potential for dry storms. 
Gusty and erratic winds may accompany storm outflow.

...Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies...
The primary plume of monsoon moisture is forecast to shift eastward
as the ridge begins to flatten somewhat over the northern Rockies in
response to the troughing over the northern US. This will shift the
primary axis of diurnal thunderstorm activity farther east into ID,
MT and WY where recent wetting rainfall has occurred. While
thunderstorms again appear likely, much of this activity should be
fairly favorable for wetting rainfall, and occurring where fuels are
much less receptive to lightning than the previous days.

Farther south into parts of southern OR, northern NV and northeast
CA, weak troughing impinging on the western fringes of the upper
ridge may locally bolster westerly surface winds this afternoon.
Warm and dry conditions, along with wind gusts of 10-15 mph could
support a few hours of dry/breezy conditions where fuels are
relatively drier. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but
broader fire-weather concerns are unlikely due to the modest winds.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...