000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011431
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Karina remains a powerful category 4 hurricane, although there are 
some signs that the cyclone might be near its peak intensity. Over 
the past few hours, the eye has become cloud-filled and the 
convective pattern is not quite as symmetric. A blend of the latest 
satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining the initial 
intensity at 120 kt.  Despite being very strong, the overall cloud 
pattern and wind field are relatively compact. 

The major hurricane is moving westward at about 10 kt. A general 
slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the 
next 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the 
north of the hurricane. Over the weekend, a turn to the northwest 
seems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and as the cyclone 
approaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii. Little change 
was made to the previous track forecast, except for a nudge to the 
north toward the end of the period. This track forecast is based on 
a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN models. It should be noted that 
there is a fair amount of spread from days 3 to 5, and confidence in 
that part of the track forecast is lower than average.

Karina is forecast to gradually lose strength over the next several 
days. Although the wind shear is expected to remain low for the 
next few days, progressively cooler SSTs and decreasing relative 
humidity values should cause steady weakening. However, the 
hurricane could become annular, which might cause it to weaken at a 
slower pace than average. The models are unanimous in showing 
weakening, but vary on the rate. The NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous one, and lies a little above the model 
consensus. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 18.1N 129.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 18.3N 130.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 18.8N 132.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 19.8N 137.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.1N 139.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.1N 143.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 22.8N 146.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi