Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN UTAH AND PARTS OF OHIO AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across
parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains generally on track with only minor changes made
to the existing outlook. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers/Weinman.. 09/16/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026/

...OH and Vicinity...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows broken cloud cover across
much of OH, which will allow pockets of heating/destabilization and
lead to moderate CAPE values by mid-afternoon.  Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected, in a regime of relatively weak
westerly flow aloft and poor lapse rates.  PWAT values approaching 2
inches and rather steep low-level lapse rates could result in
precip-loaded downdrafts capable of strong or occasionally damaging
winds.

...UT...
Moisture has increased across UT over the past 24 hours, with
dewpoints now in the low-mid 50s and PWAT values over 1 inch.  This
along with ample heating will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. A band of 35-45 knot southwesterly mid-level winds
across this area will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for a few
rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds.