Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging winds may accompany a few strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of the central and southern
Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the eastern US will remain in place as mid-level
flow trends more zonal this weekend. Shortwave ridging over the
western US should temporarily intensify ahead of a series of
low-amplitude Pacific troughs approaching the coast. A subtle
shortwave perturbation will move from the Rockies and across the
central US with mid-level flow gradually turning northwesterly in
its wake. Surface lee troughing and a weak cyclone should deepen
over the central and southern High Plains amidst a moist
monsoon/tropical air mass. Scattered thunderstorms with at least
isolated severe potential are expected.

...Central and southern Plains...
Ahead of the weak low and lee trough, southerly low-level flow will
aid in maintaining a moist air mass across much of TX/OK and KS.
Diurnal heating and subtle surface confluence ahead of the trough
should allow for weak to moderate destabilization through the
afternoon. Two areas of thunderstorm initiation appear possible,
along and ahead of the surface low in KS where mid-level flow is
stronger (deep-layer shear of 30+ kt), and farther southwest along
the lee trough into western OK and the east/southeastern TX
Panhandle. Lingering clouds and showers in eastern KS cast some
uncertainty on destabilization and the presence of surface-based
storms farther north. Still, isolated hail would be possible with
any storms near the surface low.

Despite somewhat weak flow aloft farther southwest, veering with
height should yield 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear with modestly
curved and elongated hodographs. Peak afternoon buoyancy of
1500-2000 J/kg along and east of the lee trough with temperatures in
the 80s and upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be capable of
supporting strong updrafts. As such, a few organized multicells and
transient supercells may develop and intensify along a narrow
corridor through the afternoon. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
and sufficient buoyancy may support an isolated severe wind/hail
threat with the stronger/organized storms.

..Lyons.. 09/24/2026