Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across parts of the southern Great Plains.

...Southern Plains...
A midlevel closed low will move slowly eastward from NM to west TX
with slow weakening by late Wednesday, while the prior remnants of
Hurricane Polo will have ejected northeastward over the southern
High Plains and dissipated by Wednesday morning.  An associated lee
cyclone will be maintained through the day, but also begin to fill
by Wednesday night.  This all suggests a slow downtrend in the mass
response and associated wind profiles.  Midlevel lapse rates will
also remain modest given prior days clouds/rainfall muting surface
heating across the southern Rockies.

In the wake of morning clouds/convection, there is the potential for
a narrow zone of surface heating and destabilization along and east
of the lee trough which could support additional thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.  Will maintain 5-15%
severe probabilities though the overall synoptic evolution casts
some doubt on both the coverage and magnitude of the wind/tornado
threat.

..Thompson.. 09/28/2026