Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly severe wind gusts
appear possible across portions of the southern Plains Wednesday
afternoon into night. A conditional risk for isolated severe wind
gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes exists over parts of Kansas and
southern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon into night.

...Synopsis...

An upper low over the southern Rockies Wednesday morning will
progress into the central and southern High Plains by late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Associated mid/upper-level wind maxima
will precede the low, overspreading the central and southern High
Plains on Wednesday in conjunction with a corridor of modest height
falls. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to deepen
slightly during the day over southeast CO or southwest KS before
weakening Wednesday night over western KS. A Pacific front or
dryline will extend south from the low into western TX by late
afternoon, while a precipitation-reinforced, quasi-stationary
boundary is maintained across northern KS into the mid or lower MO
Valley.


...Central and Southern Plains...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday over portions of the central and southern High Plains,
aided by forcing attendant to a lead mid-level disturbance, and more
so by warm advection and moisture transport occurring along a
dynamically induced low-level jet (LLJ). A subset of the early-day
storms is likely to be maintained through the day within the
eastward-migrating warm-conveyor airstream, which will limit air
mass destabilization in those areas. To the west and south of that
convective regime, a mid-level dry slot coincident with the wind
maxima highlighted in the synopsis will overspread a moist boundary
layer ahead of the Pacific front/dryline, which will contribute to
an axis of moderate instability (i.e., MLCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg) by
mid to late afternoon.

Latest model guidance indicates a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity through the afternoon from portions of
western and central OK into west-central and southwest TX as height
falls/forcing for ascent overspread the destabilizing air mass.
While the strongest deep-layer shear associated with the
mid/upper-level wind maxima is expected to lag the warm sector to
the west, up to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear is forecast across
the instability axis. Vector orientation may largely parallel the
surface front, which would favor a quick evolution of an incipient,
semi-discrete storm mode to that of a line, as suggested by a number
of the 12Z CAMs. Generally poor mid-level lapse rates will tend to
limit large-hail production with severe wind gusts being the primary
hazard Wednesday afternoon into night.

Farther north across KS into southern NE, a secondary severe weather
threat may materialize Wednesday afternoon into night from the
vicinity of the surface triple point over western KS northeast along
the quasi-stationary front in northern KS and far southern NE. The
degree of air mass destabilization remains uncertain due to the
potential for areas of clouds and precipitation to linger through
the day. However, should sufficient instability develop to support
surface-based storms, backed surface winds and the presence of the
LLJ in the area will yield sufficient low-level shear for some
supercell tornado and/or locally damaging wind threat.

..Mead.. 09/29/2026