Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. on Saturday and
Saturday night.

...Discussion...

A polar branch short-wave trough is forecast to amplify while
progressing from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. At the
surface, an associated cold front will advance through the northern
Plains and upper Midwest with a pocket of cool mid-level
temperatures (e.g., -14 to -18 C at 500 mb) and resultant steepening
of mid-level lapse rates contributing to widely scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which could contain small hail. Elsewhere,
another boundary will settle slowly south into the Carolinas and
western and central Gulf Coast states. A moist and at least
marginally unstable air mass will exist to the south of that feature
with thunderstorms possible from portions of the southern Plains
into the Carolinas and Southeast. Weak vertical shear is forecast
across the warm sector, which, coupled with weak mid-level lapse
rates and forcing for ascent, is expected to limit severe weather
potential.

..Mead.. 10/01/2026