Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will continue to intensify as it moves quickly eastward
over the Northeast States and eventually offshore on Monday. In the
wake of the wave, northwesterly flow aloft will intensify as
expansive ridging develops across the central US. A surface cold
front near the Gulf Coast will continue to meander southward, with
high pressure and subsequent northeasterly low-level winds behind
it. Robust moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast states,
but with only weak instability and vertical shear overlap. Thus,
scatted thunderstorms are likely, but with little to no severe
potential.

Elsewhere, cool mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse
rates (8-8.5 C/km) beneath an upper-level shortwave trough may
support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great
Basin late Monday into early Tuesday. However, limited moisture and
buoyancy suggest overall coverage/intensity will remain limited.

..Lyons.. 10/03/2026