Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper low, initially over the East Coast, will continue to
move offshore as a second broader trough and strong jet move into
the northern US from southern Canada. The increasingly strong
northwesterly flow aloft and a surface cold front will reinforce a
cooler and stable high pressure air mass over much of the central
and eastern CONUS. Northerly offshore surface winds extending to the
Gulf and Atlantic Coasts will limit available moisture for much of
the US.

Thunderstorm chances will be confined to the immediate Gulf Coast
and FL where weak shear and poor lapse rates should preclude any
organized severe risk. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms may affect the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners
region as a weak midlevel wave moves over the area steepening
low/mid-level lapse rates. Storm coverage should remain low and a
severe risk is unlikely given weak instability and deep-layer shear.

..Lyons.. 10/04/2026