Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for tornadoes may develop across parts of northeastern Gulf
coastal areas late Friday into early Saturday ahead of Isaias.

...Discussion...
Within the mid-latitude westerlies, it appears that large-scale
mid-level troughing will undergo substantive further amplification
across British Columbia through the Pacific Northwest.  Downstream
ridging is forecast to build from the lee of the northern Rockies
through the upper Great Lakes/northwest Ontario vicinity, with
large-scale troughing to the east continuing slowly eastward across
New England and the Canadian Maritimes vicinity.

In the wake of the lead troughing, the building center of cool
surface ridging is forecast to shift from the upper Ohio
Valley/Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic Friday
through Friday night.  At least initially, it appears that the south
to southwestern flank of this ridging will nose through much of the
south Atlantic Coast into eastern Gulf Coast states.

At the same time, Isaias is forecast to approach and migrate inland
of the northeastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, in advance of
high-level troughing which models suggest will begin accelerating
northeast of the Texas coastal plain vicinity by early Friday. 
Model spread remains sizable concerning this trough and the track of
the tropical cyclone, however.

...Northeastern Gulf Coast...
Severe probabilities have been adjusted to account for the latest
NHC forecast track of Isaias.  Based on the accelerating northward
motion of this system, evolving hodographs and forcing for ascent
conditionally most conducive to supercell structures with potential
to produce tornadoes could become focused well to the
north-northeast of the cyclone center.  This may begin overspreading
coastal areas by early Friday evening, if not earlier.  Even as this
shifts northward, well inland of coastal areas, it is possible that
hodographs, at least, will remain conditionally supportive of a
continuing risk for supercells with tornadoes as far south as areas
near/west-northwest of the Florida Big Bend through daybreak.

The primary uncertainty with regard to the risk for tornadoes
concerns a preceding influx of potentially cool/stable
boundary-layer air as far south as coastal areas, which may remain
inhibitive through the period.  Based on 07/12Z NAM (with a track
similar, but perhaps slower than the official forecast track)
forecast soundings, low-level thermodynamic profiles do not become
conducive to an appreciable risk for tornadoes until late Friday
night, generally near/northwest of the Florida Big Bend.  This may
be in the wake of the better large-scale forcing for ascent.

..Kerr.. 10/07/2026