Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Localized severe thunderstorms may occur across the central portion
of the Florida Peninsula and/or across Iowa tonight.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. See the previous discussion below for details.

..Weinman.. 10/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026/

...Florida Peninsula...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a cloud shield generally near and
north of a residual frontal zone draped across the central portion
of the FL Peninsula.  Filtered sunshine generally south of the I-4
corridor will contribute to weak destabilization in the presence of 
a tropical airmass characterized by mid-upper 70s deg F surface
dewpoints.  Model forecast soundings show moderate effective shear
(25-30 kt) and a veering wind profile through a deep layer.  Given
the very moist boundary layer coupled with proximity to the frontal
zone and shear supporting potentially transient weak rotation, a
brief tornado or waterspout is possible.

...Iowa...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast
tonight in tandem with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing as warm
advection and isentropic ascent increase to the northeast of a
northeastward-advancing warm front.  With effective shear in the
cloud-bearing layer expected to increase to 40+ kt, the possibility
exists for a few elevated supercells late this evening into the
overnight, with a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.