Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
Widespread rainfall and higher elevation snow is expected across
much of the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies through the
middle of next week as a strong upper-level low merged with a
remnant subtropical moisture plume impacts the western CONUS. Model
guidance does suggest a period of enhanced offshore flow across
southern CA on Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday as surface high pressure and
upper ridging build over the western U.S. behind the departing upper
trough. However, preceding rainfall from Tropical Storm Rachel
should mitigate impacts from this offshore wind event. Farther east,
well above normal temperatures and dry conditions under a mid/upper
ridge will continue to bolster receptive fuels over the lower MS
River Valley northward into portions of the Midwest through Days
3-4/Monday-Tuesday. However, weak surface pressure gradients should
limit wind speeds across this region before rain potential increases
by Day 5/Wednesday.

Mid-range ensemble guidance suggests a broad ridging pattern
returning to the West late next week inviting the return of a 
warmer and drier weather regime over the region. However, generally
light surface winds and marginal fuel conditions should preclude
broader fire weather concerns.

..Williams.. 10/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...