000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120854
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
200 AM MST Mon Oct 12 2026
 
Simon continues to show signs of weakening as the eye has become
filled in, although infrared imagery shows that the central dense 
overcast has cooled since the previous advisory. There is a wide 
spread in intensity estimates, ranging from 73-127 kt. Since there 
has been an overall modest degradation to the cloud pattern, the 
current intensity is nudged downward to 100 kt. The initial wind 
radii were modified with the help of timely SAR pass.
 
The cyclone is drifting off to the northwest as it is being steered 
by a distant mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United 
States. Simon is expected to continue moving slowly near the coast 
of Mexico for the next few days. However, there is still a higher 
than normal amount of uncertainty in the track, and some models 
show that Simon gets trapped in an area of light steering between 
the US ridge and one well southwest of Simon. Later, a trough from 
the northwest will approach the hurricane and force Simon to turn 
toward the northeast with increasing forward speed, though the 
timing of this turn is uncertain. The latest NHC forecast is just 
west of the previous advisory after considering some of the latest 
AI-based guidance.  
 
Weakening is expected to continue due to Simon's proximity to the 
mountainous terrain, as well as some easterly wind shear. However, 
the sea-surface temperatures that Simon will be moving across 
later this week are around 31-32 C, which could moderate the 
weakening trend, as well as the new track being slightly farther 
offshore. The current NHC intensity forecast is generally the same 
as the previous forecast with only a few adjustments. Simon is 
still expected to rapidly weakening once the cyclone makes landfall 
around 72 h.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Dangerous wind and storm surge impacts are likely along a 
portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane 
Warning is in effect from Playa Perula to El Roblito. Residents 
should continue to shelter in a safe room to ride out the
storm as the most significant hazards are ongoing.
 
2. Simon is expected to approach the coast of western Mexico later
this week, where hurricane conditions are possible. A Hurricane
Watch is in effect from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya.
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico over the next few days. This 
rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
4. Large swells will affect portions of the southwestern and 
west-central coasts of Mexico over the next few days. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 20.6N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 21.2N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 21.8N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 22.3N 107.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  14/1800Z 22.9N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 23.4N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 96H  16/0600Z 24.1N 105.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake