Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Friday...

An intense midlevel trough will progress from the Great Lakes to off
the Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning. An associated surface low is
forecast to develop from the lower Great Lakes to off the New
England coast while a trailing cold front advances through much of
the eastern CONUS. A moist and at least marginally unstable air mass
is forecast in portions of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon, with
thunderstorms possible along and ahead of the front. Vertical shear
is expected to be relatively strong, suggesting the potential for
isolated severe weather. Level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be
required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.


...Days 5 through 8/Saturday through Tuesday...

A considerably drier and more stable low-level air mass will persist
at many locations over the weekend with non-severe storms possible
in portions of FL and the lower-CO Valley. By early next week, there
is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move into the
western CONUS. In response, a deepening lee trough over the High
Plains will lead to increasing moisture return, particularly over
the southern Plains by Tuesday. However, no severe weather is
expected through that time frame.