Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will translate southeastward across the
eastern U.S. with a complimentary ridge building into the
Intermountain West through D4/Saturday. At the surface, a
substantial cold front will sweep across the Southeastern U.S., with
dry post-frontal flow bringing some fire weather concerns to
portions of the lower MS River Valley on D3/Friday, with fire
weather threat shifting farther south towards the Gulf Coast on
D4/Saturday. High pressure building in behind the cold front across
the central U.S. along with a mid-level cutoff low will continue to
support offshore flow and a fire weather threat across portions of
CA on D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. Upper riding shifts into the
central U.S. while an upper trough approaches the West Coast early
next week. The trough and associated mid-level jet could bring dry
and breezy conditions into northeast CA and northern Great Basin
Monday but forecast uncertainty reduced predictability for this time
frame.

...Day 3-4/Friday-Saturday...
...Southern California...
An offshore flow pattern will persist across portions of southern CA
on D3/Friday as strong surface high pressure moves into the central
U.S. A mid/upper cut off low over the Baja Peninsula will continue
to aid in deep layer easterly flow over the region supporting
surface winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts in favored terrain
gaps. Cloud cover and higher humidity will temper effects of
stronger winds heading into the weekend. Despite improving RH, the
strong winds remain a primary concern with 40% critical
probabilities added to western L.A. county and eastern Ventura
county for D4/Saturday. 

...Lower Mississippi River Valley and Arklatex Region...
A dry, post-frontal northerly wind will impact much of the Southeast
as surface high pressure builds into central Plains/Midwest through
D4 Saturday. This dry northerly flow with wind speeds of 10-20 mph
and RH as low as 25% will promote a fire weather threat primarily
over the Lower MS River Valley and Arklatex region on D3/Friday. The
dry and breezy conditions shift southward to encompass much of LA
and southwestern MS by D4/Saturday where 40% critical probabilities
were introduced. Dry and receptive fuels remain where drought
proliferates, with ERC values reaching the 90th percentile by
Saturday across MS and much of southern LA.

..Williams.. 10/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...