Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weak shortwave trough will slowly move across the Southwest, as a
larger amplified trough approaches the West Coast overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper low will linger off the NC coast, with high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Dry offshore flow will
continue over the Southeast, with stable conditions. A few
convective showers will be possible near the FL Keys before drying
from the north.

Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop over parts of AZ and NM
as daytime heating steepens lapse rates, and a midlevel moisture
plume persists. Weak instability with an inversion near 400 mb will
limit storm strength.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2026