Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will progress across the Rockies late this week
and eject into the central and northern Plains states this weekend.
Thereafter, a more zonal, progressive upper-air pattern will become
established across the CONUS, with stronger flow aloft relegated to
the northern CONUS, and multiple mid-level impulses poised to
traverse this flow into early next week. At the moment, the best
chance for any severe potential (albeit isolated) will be across the
Desert Southwest on Day 4 (Thursday) and across the High Plains on
Day 5 (Friday). In the Days 4-5 period, along the eastern portion of
the upper trough, a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level flow will overspread
the Desert Southwest into the southern and central High Plains, atop
modest low-level moisture. Marginal instability and strong vertical
wind shear should overlap across the Desert Southwest on Thursday
and over the southern to central High Plains on Friday to support
scattered strong thunderstorms, a couple of which may briefly reach
severe limits. Given the anticipated isolated nature of the severe
threat, as also suggested by ML/AI guidance, severe probabilities
were not introduced this outlook.