Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Surface observations indicate that low-level moisture has slowly
increased early this morning across southeast AZ, with dewpoints
generally ranging in the mid to upper 50s at lower elevations. A
35-45 kt southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak
shortwave trough will persist across the Southwest today. Modest
large-scale ascent attendant to this feature coupled with
terrain-driven influences should aid thunderstorm initiation across
southeast AZ by 17-21Z as convective temperatures are reached with
filtered diurnal heating.

Recent RAP runs suggest that the boundary layer will not become
overly well mixed across this region through the afternoon, which
should allow for around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger)
to develop. This instability coupled with cool mid-level
temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear sufficient for
some updraft organization with the scattered to numerous
thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty
outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that spread
east-northeastward across southeast AZ into southwest NM through the
afternoon and early evening. This activity is expected to quickly
weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/19/2026