Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty
winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast
Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No Outlook changes are warranted, with incipient thunderstorm
development now occurring across southeast Arizona as of 20z. For
additional short-term forecast details, see Mesoscale Discussion
2383.

..Guyer.. 10/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026/

...Southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico...
Generally cloud-free skies are noted late this morning as heating
has steadily occurred in the presence of a relatively moist airmass
with prevalent 50s F surface dewpoints in lower elevations.
Satellite imagery/derived-winds continue to portray a 35-45 kt
southwesterly mid-level jet associated with a weak shortwave trough
will continue northeastward today. Modest large-scale ascent related
to this feature coupled with terrain-driven influences should aid
thunderstorm initiation across southeast Arizona this afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached.

The boundary layer will not become overly well mixed across this
region through the afternoon, which should allow for around 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. This instability coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear appear
sufficient for some updraft organization with the scattered to
numerous thunderstorms that form. Isolated, marginally severe hail
and gusty outflow winds may occur with the stronger cells that
develop and spread east-northeastward across southeast Arizona into
southwest New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening. This
activity is expected to quickly weaken by mid-evening with the loss
of daytime heating.