Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
ARIZONA...FAR SOUTHERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail, wind and perhaps a brief tornado may occur
over portions of Arizona, southern Utah and western New Mexico on
Wednesday.

...Discussion...
An upper low will slowly approach CA Wednesday, with strong
southwest winds aloft overspreading much of the Great Basin, Lower
CO River Valley, AZ and UT. A surface trough will develop during the
day from southern CA/southwest AZ into central NV, with gusty south
to southeast surface winds aiding boundary-layer mixing, as well as
moisture advection across AZ and into southern UT.

Scattered showers and storms may be ongoing over northern AZ
Wednesday morning, aided by upslope winds. Further destabilization
is likely during the day, with expanding storm coverage overall.
Favorable deep-layer shear over 50 kt with elongated hodographs will
favor a few supercells producing hail. A tornado or two may occur
especially over the elevated terrain where LCL heights will be
lower.

Instability and placement/timing of the greatest threat area is a
bit uncertain, but increased severe probabilities may occur in later
updates as the event nears.

..Jewell.. 10/19/2026