Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central into southern New Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A broad longwave upper trough will impinge on the Rockies on Friday,
supporting strong surface lee troughing along the High Plains.
Continued northward advecting low-level moisture and deep-layer
ascent accompanying the broad upper trough will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms all along the Rockies to the northern
Plains. Across portions of the southern Rockies, locally richer
moisture and associated instability, beneath stronger flow aloft,
will support a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms.

...Portions of central into southern New Mexico...
An embedded mid-level impulse and accompanying 50+ kt mid-level
southwesterly speed max will graze the southern Rockies during by
afternoon. By this time, surface heating of a low-level airmass
comprising upper 50s F dewpoints and overspread by 7.5+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates will yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in spots.
Scattered thunderstorms should initiate by afternoon, amid veering
and strengthening flow with height. Forecast soundings show modest
low-level hodograph curvature and up to 40 kts of effective bulk
shear. This shear, along with the aforementioned buoyancy, should
support a mix of multicells and supercells capable of producing
isolated instances of severe hail and wind.

..Squitieri.. 10/21/2026