Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough gradually progressing across the Rockies this
weekend will eject into the Plains, with the prevailing mid-level
flow pattern becoming more zonal and progressive through next week.
Surface high pressure and attendant subsidence will overspread most
of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting thunderstorm development
through at least early next week. The best chance for any severe
weather (albeit sparse) would be across the southern Rockies Day 4
(Saturday), where a buoyant airmass will reside ahead of the upper
trough prior to ejection. 

Medium range guidance depicts the eastward progression and
amplification of another upper trough toward the middle of next
week, which should encourage strong surface troughing and the
progression of a cold front across the central U.S. The southern
extent of the front may interact with a potentially buoyant airmass
over the southern Plains, most likely around Day 8 (Wednesday) or
beyond. While at least isolated severe storms are possible,
questions regarding the placement and timing of the front, and lack
of consistency among guidance precludes severe probabilities this
outlook.