SPC MD 2391
MD 2391 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST

Mesoscale Discussion 2391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...far southern California Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220036Z - 220230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Convection approaching the coast may pose a brief threat
of a weak tornado and damaging wind gust over the next few hours.  A
watch is unlikely given the marginal and isolated nature of the
threat.

DISCUSSION...Convection has deepened and strengthened along a
convergence band off the far southern California coast and will move
onshore in the next couple of hours.  While the convection currently
lacks lightning, there has been a history of rotation offshore. 
Despite the shallow and meager instability, there is sufficient
deep-layer and low-level shear to support storm organization and
rotation.  As such, the potential for a weak tornado and a strong
wind gust will exist as this band moves onshore.

..Jirak/Smith.. 10/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...

LAT...LON   32571748 33011761 33411804 33691796 33871794 33861768
            33581732 33301706 32961692 32751694 32581701 32571748 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2391.html