Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for
hail, are possible on Sunday across portions of southern New Mexico
and Far West Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone/trough over UT/AZ will lift northeast across the
southern/central Rockies on Sunday into early Monday. A belt of
enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Modest southeasterly low-level
flow will maintain 50s F surface dewpoints across western TX into
southern/eastern NM to the south of a stalled surface boundary 
oriented from northeast NM into western KS.

Convection is likely to be ongoing Sunday morning, lending to some
uncertainty in northward extent of low severe probabilities. Further
south across southern/southeast NM into Far West Texas, forecast
guidance suggests muted daytime heating could occur across the
modestly moist airmass, resulting in weak destabilization. Supercell
wind profiles will again be present given vertically veering winds
and increasing southwesterly flow with height. Cool midlevel
temperatures and elongated hodographs suggest hail will be the main
risk with stronger convection.

..Leitman.. 10/23/2026