Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While a strong thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon across
far west Texas into southeast New Mexico, organized severe
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low.

...20z Update...
Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing along the Sacramento
Mountains in southeastern New Mexico and the Davis Mountains in West
Texas. Modestly cool temperatures aloft overlying moist low-levels
and surface temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to low-70s F are
supporting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this may allow for
the development of a more robust updraft or two, stronger mid/upper
level flow has shifted eastward (per regional VWPs and 18z observed
soundings from ABQ/EPZ/AMA) in conjunction with the primary
mid-level shortwave trough now noted over the Texas Panhandle, which
is limiting effective shear to generally 30 kts or less across the
region. Thus, the severe threat continues to appear too
limited/isolated to warrant the inclusion of severe probabilities
with this outlook update. See the discussion below for additional
details.

..Chalmers.. 10/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026/

...Far West Texas/Southeast New Mexico...
Widespread cloudiness remains over much of the southern High Plains
as of late morning, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough over
the central Rockies expected to move northeastward across the
central/northern Plains through tonight. Another weak, low-amplitude
shortwave trough will continue to advance northeastward over the
southern High Plains this afternoon. This feature should aid
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across this region in
the 20-22Z time frame. Modest heating of moist low levels coupled
with cool temperatures aloft should support around 500-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with the greatest instability forecast across far west
TX/southeast NM where some clearing has occurred. However, mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should both remain fairly modest
(generally 20-25 kt or less). While a stronger thunderstorm or two
may develop this afternoon, the overall severe hail/wind threat
still appears too limited/isolated to justify including low severe
probabilities with this update.