Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Southern Rockies to Southern Plains vicinity...

Upper ridging will begin the period over the southern/central Plains
to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity. The ridge will weaken across
the southern Plains as a shortwave impulse ejects from northern
Mexico into TX/NM. Meanwhile, another shortwave upper trough will
move east across the Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold
front will extend from the upper Great Lakes to central KS Thursday
morning. The northern extent of the front will continue to develop
east/southeast across portions of the Midwest, while the western
extent of the front advances northward across the central Plains
within the low-level warm advection regime beneath the upper ridge.

Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary layer
moisture northward across TX/OK/KS and the Lower MO Valley. This
will support generally modest destabilization in the 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE range, though a few areas across OK/KS may see values
approaching 1500 J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop within the broad warm advection regime, aided by modest
large-scale ascent from the ejecting weak midlevel trough, from
NM/TX into OK/KS from midday into the evening. Vertical shear is
forecast to remain weak, limiting organized strong/severe
thunderstorm potential despite modest instability.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026