Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
Minnesota/Wisconsin this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes, large hail
and damaging winds will be possible.

...MN/WI...
Morning water vapor loop shows fast west-southwesterly flow aloft
across the central/northern Plains into the Midwest.  A couple of
shortwave troughs are noted - one fast-moving trough over eastern
WY, and a second lower-level trough over central KS.  These features
will track into the Midwest states by afternoon, aiding in the
development of scattered thunderstorms.  Forecast hodographs are
impressive with strong low-level veering/increasing winds with
height and 1km SRH values in the 200-300 m2/s2 range.  

Wind fields would be conditionally favorable for supercells and
tornadoes, but the thermodynamics are the primary forecast
uncertainty.  Low-level moisture across the region is quite limited
at this time, but strong southerly low-level winds ahead of the
approaching troughs will help dewpoints to rise to near 60F across
southern MN. Forecast soundings suggest this is barely sufficient
for surface-based storms.  The corridor most likely to see a few
intense storms would be from central MN into northwest WI, mainly
from 20-01z.  Storms may transition to fast-moving bowing structures
in WI, with a risk of damaging winds if they can remain
surface-based.

...IA/NE...
Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible southward along
the cold front into southwest IA/eastern NE.  Storm coverage in this
area will be low, but any storm that persists could pose a risk of
hail.

...Southeast NM/Far West TX...
An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible again today along/east
of the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast NM.  Forcing is weak and
overall confidence is not high enough for severe probabilities. 
Nevertheless, a storm or two could pose a risk of hail later today.

..Hart/Dean.. 10/28/2026