Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the central/eastern Carolinas and coastal southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
An upper trough/low centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
advance eastward over the Atlantic Coast states through the period.
An associated 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will likewise
translate eastward today across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England. A weak surface low analyzed over the southern Mid-Atlantic
will develop northeastward towards southern New England along a
front through the afternoon. A rather moist low-level airmass will
remain in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally
ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

12Z observed soundings from OKX/GSO show a nearly saturated boundary
layer and rather poor low/mid level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.5 C/km
in the 700-500 mb layer). Combined with widespread cloudiness
evident on recent visible satellite imagery, these modest lapse
rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak
instability and limit overall convective intensity. Still, ongoing
convection this morning along/ahead of the front may pose some risk
for isolated damaging winds given 30-40 kt of southwesterly
deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization and potential for
clustering. The threat for strong/gusty winds may extend into parts
of southern New England, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings
suggest little potential for surface-based instability to develop
across this region.

Somewhat better diurnal heating should occur with southward extent,
and greater instability (MLCAPE up to 1000-1250 J/kg) is forecast to
develop this afternoon across the central/eastern Carolinas and
southeast VA. A lobe of mid-level vorticity and associated forcing
for ascent embedded within the large-scale upper trough/low should
overspread this region and support additional thunderstorm
development by 16-18Z along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front.
A mix of loosely organized clusters and marginal supercell
structures should pose a risk for occasional damaging winds,
especially if low-level lapse rates can become steepened through
filtered daytime heating. While low-level flow and related shear are
not forecast to be overly strong, a brief tornado or two also
appears possible. This activity should weaken and/or move offshore
by early evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany an upper trough
progressing southeastward across the Southwest today, and weak
instability should develop this afternoon over parts of southeast
AZ. Deep-layer shear appears marginal for organized updrafts, but
occasional small hail could occur with the strongest cores that
develop.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 11/06/2026