Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley late Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as
an upper ridge overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies. Ahead of
the amplifying upper trough, a surface low will rapidly deepen while
traversing the OH river through the period, accompanied by a surface
cold front that will sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A marginally
moist airmass will advect northward ahead of the approaching cold
front, resulting in enough buoyancy (albeit scant), amid strong
tropospheric flow fields and deep-layer ascent, to support isolated
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. 

...Mid-MS Valley...
By late afternoon into early evening, upper 50s F surface dewpoints
will advect ahead of the surface cold front, amid 7+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates and minimal MLCINH (per RRFS forecast soundings),
yielding over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given strong forcing for ascent,
scattered thunderstorms should develop amid a strong unidirectional
tropospheric wind field by late afternoon into early evening over
the mid MS Valley. Appreciable strengthening of this flow with
height should support 50+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear and
elongated hodographs. As such, any stronger storm cores that develop
and become sustained may produce a few damaging gusts, hence the
introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities, which is
also supported by the ML guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 11/09/2026